A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
